Jeff Roche - Notes

David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

Lots to chew on here. Some of the key points:

In 2016 Democrats lost voters to Trump who were motivated by racism
To win elections, Democrats are going to have to win these racist voters back somehow
The vast majority of voters do not have ideologically consistent views. Eg. a lot of pro-life people want higher taxes
In other words, what we call “moderates”, are, for the most part people who agree with Democrats on some issues and who agree with Republicans on other issues
So every time a politician opens their mouth on an issue, they will either gain or lose a group of these voters
When a politician embraces an unpopular issue, they might convince their base to change their view, but they won’t convince the moderates. The moderates will most likely go the other way
And, some of the biggest societal changes in opinion happened outside of campaigns. For example, gay marriage and marijuana legalization. Gay marriage support actually decreased in support when it was a topic of the 2004 election
A reason why the center-left have been losing white, non-college-educated voters both in the US and elsewhere is that in the post-war era, college-educated voters made up only about 4% of the population but now it’s something like 35%. The government officials on both ends of the political spectrum were college-educated with cosmopolitan views. As college-educated cosmopolitan voters became more of the electorate, center-left parties started openly embracing cosmopolitan values and campaigning on things they always wanted to
The reason there’s a divide on these cosmopolitan values is that research shows education makes people more open to new experiences
This is manifesting in trends of non-white, non-college-educated voters as well. They are trending Republican
One theory for why this is happening with black voters is the weakening of the black church. There’s a correlation between voting Republican and not going to church
Democrats have been doing a bunch of unpopular things because the people who work on the campaign tend to be very liberal, ideological people
“Leftists just don’t understand how small of a minority we are.”
On the other hand, people tend to underestimate Democrats’ openness to left-wing policies that poll as very popular
There’s strong correlation between how voters voted for president and how they voted for the senate. It used to be that split tickets were common but that’s no longer the case. One theory for this is that people are better informed. Studies show a correlation between broadband internet access and ideological polarization